DudeAsInCool

No Exits Now it's Kerry who has to thread the needle. By William Saletan Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 9:43 PM PT 9:33 p.m. PT: That proviso about the exit polls matching the returns is looking quite a bit more important now than it did three hours ago. Bush has Florida and Colorado in the bag. All scenarios for a Kerry victory now require Ohio. Kerry led 51-49 in the Ohio exit poll this afternoon. But he also led 51-49 in the Florida exit poll, and we've seen what happened there. Nationwide, the exit polls had Kerry up 51-48. But with 80 million votes counted already, it's Bush who has a 51-48 lead. So at this point, the exit polls are at best meaningless. Or worse, if you're a Democrat, the six-point gap between what the exit polls predicted for Kerry nationally and what the returns show so far means that in Ohio, a two-point lead for Kerry in the exit poll foreshadows a Bush win by as many as four points. In New Mexico, two-thirds of the precincts have reported, and it doesn't look good for Kerry: He's down 51-48. So even if he takes Iowa, where he's now leading with two-thirds of the vote tallied, he'll have to win either Nevada, which has just begun counting, or Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, he's hanging on to a 14,000-vote lead—that's a single percentage point—with half the precincts reporting. If Kerry holds that lead in Wisconsin and closes what is now a 120,000-vote Bush lead in Ohio, he's the next president. Or if he holds his lead in Iowa and picks off Nevada, he can get the same result—but not without Ohio. Three-quarters of the precincts in Ohio have now reported, and Kerry still trails by 126,000 votes, about 3 percent of the total. I don't think he can pull it off. But I've been wrong so many times now that I'd be happy—no, really, in this case I would be positively delighted—to be proved wrong again. http://www.slate.com/id/2109079/

I believe young people voted. I dont believe the people who said they didnt

Zogby's last poll said that Bush would win the popular vote, but not the electoral vote

No Exit The exit polls force Bush to thread the needle. By William Saletan Posted Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 6:09 PM PT Nov. 2, 6:08 PT: We can't be sure how far tonight's returns will ultimately vary from the late-afternoon exit-poll numbers (see this "Press Box"). But with that understood, let's talk about what the numbers mean, if true, for the electoral map. Bush gets to 189 electoral votes with no problem. Assuming he takes Virginia, he's at 202. With Missouri, where he's 5 points up in the exit polls, he's at 213. Now he needs Colorado. I never took this state seriously as a problem for him, but the afternoon numbers suggest it might be: He's up just a point there. Let's assume he takes it. Now he's at 222. At this point, he has run out of states where he's leading in the exit polls, and he's still looking for a combination of 47 electoral votes to get him to 269. (He wins in the House if it's a tie.) The next best shots are Nevada and Iowa, where he's down a point. Let's say he takes them, too. Now he's at 234, still 35 electoral votes away—and he has run out of states where he's trailing by a single point. He'll have to start winning in places where he's trailing by two. How about New Mexico? Let's give him that. Now he's at 239, but that's still not enough to win the election even if Florida comes around. He'll have to capture the other state where he's down two in the exit polls: Ohio. It seems a bit unfair, making him win a state with 20 electoral votes just to get the three he needs for a tie. Wouldn't it be easier to package Florida or Ohio with Wisconsin? Either combination gets him to 269 or beyond, so let's try that. Colorado plus Nevada plus Iowa plus New Mexico plus Wisconsin plus either Ohio or Florida. For those of you doing the math at home, that's a Bush sweep of five states where the exit polls have him trailing, without losing a single state in which he leads. In three of those states, Bush's winning scenario requires the exit polls to be at least two points off. In Wisconsin, it requires the exit polls to be at least three points off. And it gets uglier from there. Because if even one of these breaks doesn't go Bush's way, there is no remaining state on the board in which he trails by less than six in the exit polls. Bush can win this thing, but he'll need a lot of luck. More than he'll get, if you ask me. http://www.slate.com/id/2109079/

No news yet...

Updated numbers: Updated Late Afternoon Numbers Mucho flattering to Kerry; plus Nader makes an appearance. By Jack Shafer Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 4:28 PM PT Florida Kerry 51 Bush 49 Ohio Kerry 51 Bush 49 Michigan Kerry 52 Bush 46 Nader 1 Pennsylvania Kerry 53 Bush 46 Iowa Kerry 50 Bush 49 Wisconsin Kerry 51 Bush 48 Nader 1 Minnesota Kerry 52 Bush 46 Nader 2 New Hampshire Kerry 54 Bush 44 Nader 1 New Mexico Kerry 50 Bush 48 Nader 1 Colorado Kerry 49 Bush 50 Nader 1 Arkansas Kerry 45 Bush 54 Nader 1 Missouri Kerry 47 Bush 52 New York Kerry 62 Bush 36 Nader 2 Nevada Kerry 49 Bush 48 Nader 1 New Jersey Kerry 54 Bush 44 Nader 1 West Virginia Kerry 45 Bush 54 Nader 1 http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/

Robert Novak just said on CNN that Republican insiders are pessimistic about Ohio for Bush...based on the early numbers

Your three wishes are granted!

Zogby calls it It's one pollster's prediction, and hours before the nets weigh in with their calls, but at 5 p.m. ET, pollster John Zogby calls the race for John Kerry, with landslide proportions: 311 to 213 electoral votes, and only two states too close to call: Nevada and Colorado. But, what's this? Zogby's final-final poll has Bush winning the popular vote, but just barely, 49.4 to 49.1 percent, and not really, when you consider the margin of error, +/- 3.2 percent. Stay tuned for an exciting night. -- Geraldine Sealey [14:41 PST, Nov. 2, 2004] http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/

Zogby calls it It's one pollster's prediction, and hours before the nets weigh in with their calls, but at 5 p.m. ET, pollster John Zogby calls the race for John Kerry, with landslide proportions: 311 to 213 electoral votes, and only two states too close to call: Nevada and Colorado. But, what's this? Zogby's final-final poll has Bush winning the popular vote, but just barely, 49.4 to 49.1 percent, and not really, when you consider the margin of error, +/- 3.2 percent. Stay tuned for an exciting night. -- Geraldine Sealey [14:41 PST, Nov. 2, 2004] http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/

:rotfl: *** What a sad story. The kid's got to live with this memory the rest of his life.

Early exit polls in Ohio suggest the voters are more interested in JOBS then they are in the War on Terrorism & that spells bad news for the Elephants. Here's the lastest info - Kerry in the lead in almost all the key states by a sliver. http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/ *** The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard: Florida Kerry 50 Bush 49 Ohio Kerry 50 Bush 49 Pennsylvania Kerry 54 Bush 45 Wisconsin Kerry 51 Bush 46 Michigan Kerry 51 Bush 47 Minnesota Kerry 58 Bush 40 Nevada Kerry 48 Bush 50 New Mexico Kerry 50 Bush 48 North Carolina Kerry 49 Bush 51 Colorado Kerry 46 Bush 53 Other exit-poll results have arrived in more vague form, with Kerry leading Bush in New Hampshire but trailing him in Arizona and Louisiana.

Too bad. The swing states are Ohio and Florida

Yes, but why waste the space

I just voted for every democrat I could find on my ballot...along with the rest of the fruits and nuts in my state. No one was there to intimidate my vote - if anyone had, I threatened to join the NRA My prediction: Kerry will win based on the get out the vote drive.

:good job:

Cheney

:reallymad: :reallymad: :reallymad:

:reallymad: :reallymad: :reallymad:

Erase such rubbish from your mind...and instead... You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats You will vote for Kerry-Edwards and all the Democrats

The skins practiced in my hometown when I was growing up...

Saturday, November 6, 2004 - The Business of Chick Flicks at the American Film Mkt 2pm They Call Them "Chick Flicks": Offensive or Good Marketing? Programmed by: The International Committee of Women in Film Women's pictures used to be guilty pleasures: No more! Now they're kicking butt, getting respect and grossing huge. From frothy romance to whale-riding adventures, these films show us who we are, where we've been, what we can take, and better yet, what we can dish out. Moderator: June Shelley, International Sales & Marketing Consultant; Chair, The International Committee of Women in Film Panelists: Jack Amiel, Writer, Raising Helen, The Prince & Me Michael Begler, Writer, Raising Helen, The Prince & Me Martha Coolidge, Director, The Prince & Me, Rambling Rose, Angie, Valley Girl Aiyana Elliott, Director/ Writer, Tough, The Ballad of Ramblin' Jack Kathleen McLaughlin, Producer, Rabbit-Proof Fence, The Quiet American Dana Precious, President, New Media, Ignition Creative Mark Rosman, Director/ Writer, Cinderella Story, The Perfect Man, Lizzie McGuire

She deserves it! :good job:

Im sure everyone will be happy when this is over, particularly the non-US Beatking members who must be sick of all the political threads. Well, we are almost there... :bigsmile:

Analysis Nov. 1, noon ET: Last night we warned that Florida and Ohio were on a knife's edge and that Kerry could not survive if he lost both. This morning we got two polls that nudged both states ever so slightly back to Bush. The only reason we've had these states leaning one way or the other in the last 24 hours is that we decided at the outset of this project to allocate even the iffiest states. When you look at all the data, Florida and Ohio are tossups. By favoring one criterion over another, you can make a solid argument for either candidate in either state. Last night the weight of evidence was heavier for Kerry by three ounces. Today it's heavier for Bush by two ounces. We warned last night not to make too much of Kerry's 299. We'll warn now not to make too much of Bush's 286. Here is the math that matters: If all the states in which the data lean discernibly to either candidate vote as the polls suggest, the election will come down to Florida and Ohio. If Bush takes both, he wins. If Kerry takes either, he wins. Since the odds in each state are approximately 50-50, with a tiny edge to Bush, the combined probability of Kerry winning the election is about 70 to 75 percent. http://www.slate.com/id/2108751/